ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, has officially published the results from its latest Special Housing Risk Report, which focuses on county-level housing markets around the United States that are vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity, and other measures in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Going by the available details, this particular report goes on to show that California, Illinois and the New York City area had high concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with pockets of Florida following suit. On the other hand, if we talk about less-vulnerable markets, they were deemed to be in various other areas of the Northeast, Midwest and South.
More on the same would reveal that, out of 50 US counties considered as most exposed to potential fallbacks, nearly two-thirds were in California, Florida, Illinois, and the New York City.
You see, county-level housing markets on the latest list included a total of five in and around Chicago, IL, four in or near New York City, and seven scattered across Florida. While California emerged with the highest tally of 14, the rest were understood to be present in Midwest, Northeast and South.
Talk about the same on a slightly deeper level, the most at-risk counties in Illinois included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties. Moving on, New York City had Kings County and Richmond County making the cut. As for the New York City suburbs, it had Essex and Passaic counties in northern New Jersey joining the mix.
Turning our attention towards California’s lot, it included Butte County (Chico), Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka), and Shasta County (Redding).
Beyond that, the area had Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), San Joaquin County (Stockton), Stanislas County (Modesto) in central California, as well as Riverside and San Bernardino counties in southern California.
Markedly enough, Washington was also found to have three of the most vulnerable counties in the form of Washington, DC area, along with Charles County, and Prince George’s County in Maryland.
Then there is Florida, where Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), Hernando County (Spring Hill), Lake County (Clermont), Marion County (outside Gainesville), Pasco County (outside Tampa), Polk County (Lakeland), and St. Lucie County (Port St. Lucie), would show out to be the most vulnerable areas.
“Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This report isn’t meant to raise red flags or predict endless gains—it simply highlights counties experiencing more or less pressure that could influence home values, foreclosures, or homeowner equity.”
Hold on, we still have a few bits left to unpack, considering we haven’t yet touched upon the fact that major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 28 of the 50 counties that, on their part, were originally deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs during fourth quarter of 2024.
This means such expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. From nationwide perspective; major expenses on typical homes sold required 34 percent of average local wages, which happens to be a level above commonly accepted affordability benchmarks.
Taking a county-specific view of things here, the highest percentages, across most at-risk markets, were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (106.5 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Riverside County, CA (70.4 percent); Passaic County, NJ (outside New York City) (69.4 percent); Richmond County (Staten Island), NY (67.6 percent), and El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (66.5 percent).
In case that wasn’t enough, more than 6 percent of residential mortgages also went underwater in 29 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Areas with the highest underwater rates among 50 most at-risk counties included Pasco County, FL (outside Tampa) (15.8 percent underwater); Baltimore City/County, MD (15.3 percent); Orleans Parish (New Orleans)
