CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, has officially published results from its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for November 2024.
Going by the available details, U.S. home price gains remained static since the summer of 2022 in November, but having said so, 17 states would reach new highs, with the nation as a whole expected to see a new peak this April. We get to say so because that’s the time when a typical home-buying season launches into full swing.
Anyway, this projected growth also follows up on Freddie Mac recently announcing that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose to almost 7% as 2025 began, the highest recorded since July 2024. You see, while mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated for the rest of the year, buyer demand is healthy, particularly in more budget-friendly markets.
Talk about CoreLogic’s report on a slightly deeper level, we begin from how it reveals that U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 3.4% year over year in November 2024, compared to November 2023. If we take a month-over-month view, home prices rose by 0.06% compared to October 2024.
Next up, the report discovered that, in the month of November, annual appreciation of detached properties (3.7%) was 2 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (1.7%). Even for 2025; CoreLogic projects annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 3.8% in November 2025.
Out of all the cities covered by this study, Chicago posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 tracked metro areas in November at 5.8%. Miami happened to be the close second by boasting the gain of 5.6%.
As for states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in November (up by 7.8%), followed by Rhode Island (up by 7.3%) and New Hampshire (up by 6.9%). Markedly enough, no state recorded a year-over-year home price loss.
“Home prices remained relatively flat though showing some marginal improvement from the weakness seen heading into the fall and following reduced homebuyer demand amid the summer mortgage rate surge,” said Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Nevertheless, the cooling home price growth trend is expected to continue well into 2025 partly due to the base effect and comparison with strong early 2023 appreciation and partly because of the expectations of higher mortgage rates over the course of 2025. Regionally, variations persist, as some more affordable areas remain in high demand and continue to see upward home price pressures.”
For better understanding, CoreLogic HPI™ Index is actually built on an industry-leading public record, which includes servicing and securities real-estate databases. These records, on their part, pack together more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
More on the same would reveal how CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined Tier. This it does by taking account the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales of single-family attached and single-family detached properties.
Another detail worth a mention here is rooted in the fact that the indices in play here are fully revised with each release, and at the same time, they also employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.
Hold on, there is more, considering we still haven’t touched on the way CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model, which effectively combines the equilibrium home price with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and external economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. In case that wasn’t enough, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.
Among other things, we ought to mention is the model’s bid to leverage Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. All in all, CoreLogic’s forecasts have, thus far, enjoyed a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
