Assessing a Unique Supply-Demand Dynamic Developing Across the Real Estate Industry

HomesUSA.Com has officially published results from its latest study, where it was claimed that new homes across Texas sold faster as Days on Market continued to trend downward, Named as Texas New Home Sales Report, the study effectively leveraged Multiple Listing Service data – the most comprehensive, current, and accurate information – from the Realtor Associations of North Texas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. You see, going by July MLS data from these areas, the 3-month average of Days on Market was 98.27 days, which happens to be its lowest level in the past year, and down from 112.05 days recorded in April.  Another detail worth a mention here is how the 3-month average new home price in combined top four markets was lower during July, at $432,801, versus $436,489 in June. It was also down more than 6% from $462,363 in July last year. Furthermore, local 3-month average home prices were lower month-over-month in Austin ($494,302 versus $504,155), Houston ($404,253 versus $409,042), and San Antonio ($343,616 versus $349,859). Only Dallas-Ft. Worth posted a higher average sale price last month – $487,347 versus $482,048 in June. Moving on, we must also mention how inventory continues to rise, with the 3-month average of active listings in the given four largest Texas markets, for July, reported to be around 31,358 versus 30,617 in June.

“While builders are seeing homes are selling faster, year-over-year average new home prices are declining and inventory is rising, and unless we see a continued improvement in mortgage rates, it’s going to continue to be a tough market for builders as they struggle to overcome market challenges,” said Ben Caballero, CEO and co-founder of HomeUSA.com and nation’s top-ranked real estate agent.

The report in question even showed 3-month moving average of Days on Market (DOM), in July, improving significantly across Texas’ four major new home markets. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, the DOM decreased to 118.34 days versus 123.16 days during June, whereas Houston had its DOM at 91.21 days versus 94.68 days recorded in June. For Austin, the same piece of data stood around 87.38 days versus 90.81 days in June. As for San Antonio, the DOM was 86.16 days versus 92.58 days in June.

“Builders are focused on balancing production to accommodate reduced demand being caused by interest rates,” Caballero said. “The average 3-month pending sales for the four largest Texas new home markets in July totaled 6,623 versus 6,916 in June.”

Markedly enough, based on all local MLS data, total new home sales flattened in three of the four largest new home markets in Texas last month. To contextualize the same, July 3-month moving average of new home sales in Dallas-Ft. Worth was 1,902 versus 1,954 in June. For Houston, total new home sales were 2,053 versus 2,093 in June. On the other hand, while Austin had its new home sales last month at 900 versus 917 in June, San Antonio proved itself to be an exception by boasting the stated sales slightly higher at 1,121 versus 1,079 in June. Almost like an extension of that, the average 3-month pending new home sales also continue to decline across four largest Texas new home markets. In essence, if we take into account the four-market average for July, it totaled 6,623 versus 6,916 in June. Breaking it down further, in Dallas-Ft. Worth, pending new home sales last month were 2,335, as compared to 2,382 during June. Moving on to Houston, it recorded its own pending new home sales at 1,947 for July versus 2,109 in June. Then, we have Austin, where pending new home sales during July were 1,272, pitted against 1,333 in June. In San Antonio, pending new home sales were also lower last month at 1,069 against 1,092 in June.

Among other things, we ought to mention how cumulative new home sales remain slightly lower than 100 percent of the asking price. One can say so because combined 3-month moving average of the sales-to-list price ratio in Texas’ four largest markets, for July, was 97.60 versus 97.97 percent a year ago.

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